Vladimir Putin could “hold hostage” the US ceasefire proposal that Ukraine has agreed to so that Russia can extract concessions before formal talks to end the war have even started, experts have warned. The Kremlin may also “demand a halt to weapons supplies to Ukraine to as a condition of agreeing to the temporary ceasefire”, a source close to the Kremlin has reportedly said. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note they did not specify if this would include all international weapons provisions to Ukraine, or only those from select countries.

Suspending US or other military assistance to Volodymyr Zelensky‘s troops during a ceasefire would be “extremely advantageous” to Russia” , it added. This is because Russia continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North Korea, and China. “Such an enormous concession would also destroy US leverage in future negotiations, in addition to violating the conditions under which Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire in the first place,” the ISW added.

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