A new forecast shows that if a general election was held tomorrow, Labour would lose its majority and Reform UK would double its number of seats.

The Nowcast model reveals that Keir Starmer’s party would lose 106 seats which would reduce the party’s total to just 305 MPs. This is below the threshold needed for a majority of 326 seats.

If an election were to be held now, Labour would likely need to form a coalition government.

The new forecasting also shows that the Conservatives would gain a staggering 93 seats totalling 214 MPs – this would bring their vote share up to 26.5%, just 1.4 points behind Labour.

The Liberal Democrats are shown to lose three seats, totalling 69 MPs with the SNP gaining six seats, Plaid Cymru losing one and the Green Party remaining on four.

However, Nigel Farage’s party, Reform UK, ia forecast to double its number of MPs from five to 10.

The seats that Reform UK would gain are Bradford South, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Amber Valley, Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr and Llanelli.

The Nowcast model for November also predicted that Nigel Farage’s party would hold onto its five current seats that they won in July’s general election.

The current Reform constituencies are:

Clacton

Nigel Farage’s seat which he won by 8,405 votes.

Ashfield

Lee Anderson’s constituency won by 5,509 votes.

Great Yarmouth

Rupert Lowe’s constituency – he won by 1,426 votes.

Boston and Skegness

Richard Tice’s seat which he won by 2,010 votes.

South Basildon and East Thurrock

James McMurdock’s seat won by just 98 votes.

The new election maps come after a petition calling for a general election which surpassed two million signatures this morning. Sir Keir Starmer has since ruled out an election during an interview on ITV’s This Morning where he faced a grilling from the hosts.

Michael Westwood, the man behind the petition, wrote on the website: “I would like there to be another General Election,

“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.”