A terrifying new map has exposed the fragility of the UK’s food supply chain, warning that shocks like wars, extreme weather, or cyber-attacks could trigger cascading crises leading to shortages, soaring prices, and even social unrest. Researchers from the University of York, Anglia Ruskin University, and other institutions have charted how such disruptions could amplify vulnerabilities in the system, pushing it towards instability and collapse.

The study, published in the journal Sustainability, draws on insights from 39 food system experts and interviews with over 30 stakeholders from academia, government, and industry. Recent events underscore the peril: cyber-attacks have hit retailers like M&S and Co-op, while the war in Ukraine sparked global price shocks, revealing the UK’s reliance on just-in-time networks. Long-standing structural weaknesses, the report argues, leave the nation dangerously exposed, making enhanced resilience essential.

In a scenario of international conflict, trade barriers could surge energy costs, disrupt supply chains, and inflate food prices. Low-income households would suffer most, facing reduced access to nutritious food and heightened insecurity. This might spur social tensions, food fraud, black market dealings, and increased illnesses. In the worst case, eroded public trust could ignite unrest or riots.

Similar risks arise from extreme weather or cyber-attacks, acting alone or in tandem. The report’s interconnected map, rooted in systems thinking, serves as a tool for policymakers to foster resilient decisions. The interactive mapping tool can be accessed here.

To mitigate threats, experts urge boosting UK energy security, diversifying food chains, and encouraging varied, resilient diets.

Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, said: “The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security. While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.”

While there was a growing awareness of the potential risks, not enough coordinated work was being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected, she stressed.

Prof Bridle added: “Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.”

Dominic Watters, lived and living experience researcher, writer, and study contributor, said: “Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone; they come from a lack of dignity, voice, and care.

“This research highlights how the stigma and dehumanisation of food insecurity are already creating cracks in our society.

“If we want a genuinely resilient and ‘ready’ United Kingdom, we cannot build it on systems of shame. That is why this study speaks to the importance of co-designing responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.”

Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said: “The potential for events to trigger a food crisis is frequently underestimated. The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences.

“Policymakers must adopt a long term perspective to policy planning, and work across departments and wider food system stakeholders to ensure a whole-systems approach to addressing the problems.”

The report calls for urgent action to shore up defences, emphasising that foresight and collaboration are key to averting disaster.