Right now, the triple lock is one of the few points of financial stability in a stormy world. In April, Britain’s 13million pensioners will get an inflation-busting pay rise of 4.8%, helping them withstand the cost-of-living squeeze. This won’t make anyone rich. The full new state pension will climb to £12,547, and many get a lot less. It’s one of the lowest in the Western world. But it would have been a lot lower without the triple lock.

There’s an extra quirk pensioners might benefit from over the next two years, labelled a “double boost.” Britain’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, has warned that inflation could rise if oil and gas prices stay high due to the Iran war. Spikes in inflation are often followed by stronger wage growth a year later. Pensioners cashed in on this after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, receiving a record 10.1% inflation uplift in 2023, followed by an 8.4% wage-based increase in 2024, even though inflation had fallen to 6.7%. The Iran war could trigger a similar double uplift, in 2027 and 2028.

Once again, the triple lock show it’s mettle. But my worry is that this would also revive the long-running debate about its future. With inflation and wages originally expected to cool this year, I hoped critics would calm down about the triple lock. Now the debate is likely to get red hot again.

Today, we learned that the UK economy ground has to a halt. Yes, Rachel Reeves has struck again, killing growth stone dead. And this was in January, before the war began. From March, things could get even worse. We could potentially be looking at a recession this year.

That’s bad news for the triple lock. Westminster critics claim the state pension is already too big a burden, with an ageing population and fewer workers supporting more retirees. If the economy slips into recession, the cost rises even faster, while revenues to pay it will fall.

Reeves has already added half a million Brits to the dole queue, removing contributors from the system. If inflation spikes while growth flatlines, the price of keeping the triple lock will climb, and calls to scrap it in the name of “intergenerational fairness” will grow louder.

Perhaps the Iran war will end quickly, and inflation threats will ease. But it wouldn’t take much for the debate to flare up again. Critics will ask how pensioners can get another triple lock double boost at a time when wages are stalled, jobs are disappearing, and the economy may potentially be shrinking. Even Nigel Farage has said the mechanism’s future is “up for grabs”. It could draw fire from all sides.

Just when it seemed the triple lock controversy might ease, it could explode again thanks to the weapon of mass destruction we call Rachel Reeves, and now real drones and misses in the Middle East.

The Daily Express stands firmly behind the triple lock. Pensioners can celebrate a well-earned increase next month, but the battle to defend it is far from over. We may found ourselves fighting for it all over again.