Scientists have unveiled a chilling worst-case scenario prediction setting out the “disastrous consequences” of a dramatic rise in temperatures in Antarctica. Professor Bethan Davies, a glaciologist at Newcastle University, and her colleagues modelled a range of scenarios for the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the northernmost part of the continent, extending 800 miles towards South America.

Prof Davies said: “The Antarctic Peninsula is a special place. Its future depends on the choices that we make today. Under a low emissions future, we can avoid the most important and detrimental impacts. However, under a higher emissions scenario, we risk the loss of sea ice, ice shelves, glaciers, and iconic species such as penguins.

“Though Antarctica is far away, changes here will impact the rest of the world through changes in sea level, oceanic and atmospheric connections and circulation changes.”

She added: “Changes in the Antarctic do not stay in the Antarctic.”

Prof Davies and her co-authors modelled possible outcomes for the peninsula based on low emissions (1.8°C temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100), medium-high emissions (3.6°C), and very high emissions (4.4°C).

Writing in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science, they described how a higher emissions scenario would lead to faster warming of the Southern Ocean, eroding ice on land at sea.

They estimated that sea ice coverage could fall by 20%, devastating species such as krill, which are an important prey for whales and penguins.

This could also amplify ocean warming worldwide, putting stress on ecosystems and contributing to more extreme weather.

The scientists also predicted that very high emissions could lead to more animals moving south to escape higher temperatures, some of which may starve.

Prof Davies and her colleagues called for action to avoid the worst-case scenario.

She added: “At the moment, we’re on track for a medium to medium-high emissions future.

“A lower emissions scenario would mean that although the current trends of ice loss and extreme events would continue, they would be much more muted than under a higher scenario. 

“Winter sea ice would be only slightly smaller than today, and sea level contributions from the Peninsula would be limited to a few millimetres. Most of the glaciers would be recognisable and we would retain the supporting ice shelves.”

Prof Davies added: “What concerns me most about the higher emissions scenario is just how permanent the changes could be. These changes would be irreversible on any human timescale.

“It would be very hard to regrow the glaciers and bring back the wildlife that makes Antarctica special. If we don’t make changes now, our great-grandchildren will have to live with the consequences.”