Russia has vowed to protect its citizens “wherever they may be” in a veiled and chilling threat to NATO and European leaders. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said the Kremlin planned to combat “neocolonialism” and defend Russian-speaking populations from discrimination no matter where they live.

He also stated that strengthening security “in every sense” will be a key objective of the country’s foreign policy. “Regardless of the distances separating Russia from various countries, deepening our alliance with our neighbours and caring for and protecting Russians and Russian-speaking residents [will be at the forefront of our work],” he told the state TV channel Rossiya-1. He added: “Wherever they are, they must feel protected by the Motherland.”

Russia has developed a concept and political doctrine of the “Russian World” and has deployed it as a geopolitical weapon.

It is usually defined as the sphere of military, political and cultural influence of Russia. It is a vague term, mostly used to refer to communities with a historical, cultural, or spiritual tie to the motherland.

The concept took hold in the early 1990s, but was weaponised in 2014, when Vladimir Putin used it to justify his annexation of Crimea and his support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

The Baltic States all have sizeable Russian populations living on their territory, a legacy of Soviet industrialisation and internal migration policies.

The share of Russians in Estonia’s population is 21%, while in Latvia it is as high as 37.7%.

Lithuania also has a Russian minority, but considerably smaller – making up just 5% of the overall population.

The presence of these Russian minorities provides the Kremlin with plenty of opportunities to cause problems.

Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said in June that Moscow could stage a provocation in the Baltic states, citing the “protection of the Russian-speaking population” as a pretext for interference.

He pointed to the Kremlin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea as an example and said that Putin only needed to send “little green men” to Estonia to protect the Russian-speaking minority.

Putin would use such a pretext to test NATO’s resolve to protect its allies, he added.