Nigel Farage threw everything he had at winning in Runcorn and Helsby because he knew that victory here could be a vital step on the path to becoming prime minister. It’s not really because he wants another Reform MP right now – although he will be delighted to welcome the by-election victor, Sarah Pochin, to the Reform bench in the House of Commons.

The significance of this win is that it helps Farage argue that he, and not Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, is the real opposition to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. There’s a lot of talk at the moment about the two-party system collapsing. The old idea that elections are about Labour vs Tory is vanishing, some experts say.

But Nigel Farage and Reform believe that the next general election will be about voters choosing between two candidates for the post of prime minister. They will be asking whether Sir Keir Starmer should remain in No 10, or whether someone else should replace him.

So the question for Nigel is, who will that someone else be?

That means his goal, for the time being at least, is to replace the Tories as the “Right-wing” alternative to Labour (although some Reform policies, such as nationalising steel, are fairly Left-wing) and cement himself as a serious and credible candidate for No 10.

Yes, his candidate beat Labour by six votes in a stunning victory. However, the real losers from this poll are actually the Tories.

That’s why Mr Farage said this morning: “Victory in Runcorn and Helsby proves we are now the opposition party to this Labour Government.

“With this and other results tonight, it’s clear that if you vote Conservative, you will get Labour. But if you vote Reform, you get Reform.”

He can’t become prime minister right now, obviously. But he can, perhaps, become the “real opposition” – and that’s how he becomes prime minister in a few years’ time.

And he’s always known how important this vote could be. Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March, after he was convicted of punching a constituent.

Mr Farage has been making regular visits to Runcorn since January.

He and his Reform colleagues certainly put in the work. Now they are reaping the rewards.

But the real reward comes if a general election is called and voters, as well as the experts, believe it is a two-horse race between Sir Keir and Mr Farage.

That’s the dream scenario for Mr Farage and it has moved a step closer to reality.