New polling has put Reform UK at its highest vote share to date, putting Nigel Farage in pole position in the race for Number 10. The party’s popularity among voters has spiked while Labour’s plummeted in the months since last year’s general election, Ipsos’ Political Monitor shows, with Reform winning its highest-ever opinion poll rating as voter intentions hit record lows elsewhere. The findings, based on fieldwork from between May 29 and June 4, has put Reform at a 34% vote share, with Labour trailing nine points behind at 25% and the Conservatives at 15%.

While the next general election won’t be held until 2029, the new polling suggests Farage’s party would achieve a comfortable majority if voting took place today. A reproduction of Ipsos’ findings in the context of the upcoming election could give Reform over 400 seats, analysis by The Telegraph reveals, while Labour’s grip could loosen to just 140 seats and the Conservatives could shrink to a meagre 10.

Farage said the results show that “the British people now really believe that we can win the next election”.

The Political Monitor, which is the first published by Ipsos since the general election in July, also shows the extent of Labour’s dip in popularity since Sir Keir Starmer entered Downing Street almost a year ago.

The party’s vote share is the lowest since shortly before its catastrophic defeat under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, and the Prime Minister’s personal ratings are among the lowest in history, with 73% saying they are dissatisfied with his job performance so far.

The Conservatives‘ dire political position has also been laid bare, with the findings showing that over one in three of their 2024 voters have since switched to Reform UK, alongside 12% of Labour voters, 8% of Liberal Democrats and 5% of Greens.

Nigel Farage topped the list of leader satisfaction ratings with 34% to Starmer’s 19% and Badenoch’s 11%, although all three have negative net satisfaction overall, at -15, -54 and -49 respectively.

The party leader also performs significantly better within his base than his rivals, with 90% of Reform supporters satisfied with his time at the helm, while 59% of Labour voters said they were satisfied with the government and just 36% of Tories said the same of their party.

Ipsos’ polling uses an online voter panel selected using random probability sampling, with respondents adjusted in accordance with the adult population profile on factors including age, gender, qualifications and ethnicity.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “The last year has indeed been a long time in politics, with our first voting intention since the election showing just how much the political landscape has transformed since then.

“Reform UK has continued to build on its success, helped by high levels of enthusiasm among its own support and among working class voters in particular, and taking votes from both Labour and especially the Conservatives, who show little sign of recovery.”

“We know from Ipsos research how difficult it has been to shift entrenched public pessimism over the cost of living, immigration, and the state of public services, and so far, Britons do not think Labour is delivering the tangible change they were hoping for in 2024,” he added.

“Labour will be hoping that the Spending Review will start to switch the narrative to a more positive one of renewal, but the challenge they face is significant.”