Russia has singled out four NATO member states it would retaliate against first in the event of an all-out conflict. Sergey Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), named Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as “the first to suffer”.

He warned: “In the event of aggression by the North Atlantic Alliance against the Union State, the damage will be done, of course, to the entire NATO bloc. But to a greater extent, the first to suffer will be the carriers of such ideas among the political circles of Poland and the Baltic countries.” Naryshkin slammed Poland and the Baltics for their “high aggressiveness” and “rattling their weapons”.

He added: “It’s sad they cannot understand that it is the increase in military activity near the borders of Russia and Belarus that has become one of the reasons for the current large, acute and very dangerous crisis on the European continent.”

An attack on Poland or one of the Baltic nations, all members of NATO, would likely trigger Article 5 and drag the rest of the military alliance into a direct conflict with Russia. This, in turn, could spark a third global conflict.

This comes after Poland asked for US nuclear weapons on its soil and planned to deploy anti-personnel mines along its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad.

Vladimir Putin has also consistently claimed that NATO poses an existential threat to Russia.

In March 2024, he ordered nationwide nuclear readiness drills and cautioned the West against “dragging” the world into conflict, accusing it of attempting to dismantle Russia.

Last month, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania left the Ottawa Convention, which outlaws anti-personnel mines, with defence ministers saying the reason was increased Russian hostility.

As tensions rise, the Kremlin has dialled up its antagonistic stance towards NATO allies, with Russian authorities repeatedly insinuating that the alliance, not Moscow, is stoking unrest in Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also issued a warning that if Russia‘s advances go unchecked, it could eye NATO land next, potentially sparking a worldwide conflict.

The EU similarly raised the alarm that Russia might be gearing up for an clash in 2029 if Putin succeeds in Ukraine.

Leaders in Poland and the Baltics are now demanding communication with Washington and urgent confirmation that NATO’s Article 5 commitment remains solid.