Petrol and diesel drivers have been warned they could soon be paying as much as 142.5p per litre at the pumps, as conflict in the Middle East threatens oil supplies just as the Government prepares to reintroduce the full rate of fuel duty. Oil prices are expected to jump when trading resumes in New York on Sunday night after US President Donald Trump’s joint military action with Israel against Iran. Any sustained disruption in the region — particularly to key shipping lanes — would quickly feed through to forecourt prices.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is meeting and could agree to increase output, but analysts say additional supply may not be enough to counter prolonged instability. Petrol currently averages 132.9p a litre, according to the AA. However, that does not yet account for the phased withdrawal of the 5p-a-litre fuel-duty discount introduced in March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In her Budget last November, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, confirmed the cut would be reversed in stages — with 1p added in September, a further 2p in December and the final 2p in March 2027.

Once the full 5p is restored, the AA says it would take only a relatively small rise in wholesale oil prices for petrol to hit 142.5p a litre — matching the highest levels recorded before the pandemic. Diesel prices would be expected to climb in tandem.

Crude had already climbed to about £54 ($73) a barrel before the weekend’s escalation, a seven-month high, amid fears of widening conflict.

A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping route linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass. Any sustained closure would send shockwaves through energy markets.

Oxford Economics estimates that if traffic through the Strait were cut by half for two months, oil could rise to £62 ($84) a barrel. A prolonged shutdown could see prices surge towards £104 ($140) a barrel.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said shipping routes were already under strain, with some vessels avoiding the Red Sea because of attacks by Houthi rebels.

She added: “This re-routing adds to freight costs and risks snarling up supply chains.”

Edmund King, president of the AA, told The Sunday Times: “The turmoil and bombing across the Middle East will surely be a catalyst to disrupt oil distribution globally, which will inevitably lead to price hikes.

“So drivers beware, within the next 10 to 12 days we could be seeing record prices at the pumps.”

Even without a full closure, insurers are bracing for higher risk premiums.

Dylan Mortimer of the broker Marsh said war-risk cover for vessels in the region could rise by between 20 and 50 per cent.

If the conflict drags on, motorists could find themselves squeezed by both global turmoil and higher domestic taxation — pushing pump prices back to levels not seen since before Covid.