Health officials studying the Canterbury meningitis outbreak believe they may see some sporadic household cases outside of Kent, the director of public health at Kent County Council has told a briefing.

Dr Anjan Ghosh said that after modelling three possible scenarios, the “most likely” outcome in the next four weeks is that the outbreak would be confined to small household clusters outside of Kent, spread by students who had been unknowingly infected while on campus.

This would happen in “people who’ve left, they’ve gone off campus, and many of them don’t stay in Kent, they go and stay elsewhere,” Dr Ghosh said.

“They were incubating when they left, and then they become cases, and there are small household, sporadic clusters outside of Kent.”

They modelled the outcomes over the next four weeks since “that’s the time it takes for this whole thing (to) really subside”.

The first scenario was that the outbreak would remain in Kent. The third scenario, which he described as the “worst case” would result in another cluster entirely forming. However, he said this was “highly unlikely”.

Despite suggesting the “peak” of the outbreak may have passed, health chiefs suggested cases may continue to rise. The UK Health Security Agency confirmed two new cases on Friday, bringing the total to 29.

The “unprecedented” outbreak has been traced back to superspreader events at Canterbury’s Club Chemistry nightclub, between March 5 and 7, that health leaders said was the “most cases they have ever seen” triggered from a single venue.

Health bosses are currently investigating whether mutant bacteria evolved “additional superpowers” to trigger the Kent meningitis outbreak.

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