Fears have been raised that London could be within range of Iranian missiles after a dramatic escalation in tensions in the Middle East. An expert has warned that an attempted Iranian strike on the joint UK-US military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean could signal a major shift in the conflict – and potentially place parts of Europe, including the UK capital, in the firing line.

The comments come after Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the base in the ‌Indian Ocean. The missiles are not believed to have hit, but the attempted strike has raised fresh fears about the potential reach of Iran’s weapons. Muhanad Seloom, a lecturer at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, said the incident “changes the calculus” for the United States. Speaking to Al Jazeera, he said: “These missiles to Diego Garcia means Iran has 4,000km [2,490 miles] plus ballistic missiles – and that hasn’t been revealed before. All reports before that said Iran had a 2,000km range [1,240 miles] and not beyond that,” Seloom told Al Jazeera.

The analysis came as Iran threatened popular tourist spots around the world, many of which are filled with Brits. Tehran’s forces have already targeted Dubai numerous times in recent weeks.

“If you reverse the direction of these missiles, then they could reach London, so that changes the calculus not only for the US and its justification for the war, but also for a reluctant London and European Union to join the war.”

Seloom added that Iran may also have intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could even reach the US “because they tested that with their space programme”.

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation (AEOI) confirmed that “technical and specialist assessments” regarding radioactive contamination had been carried out and, based on the results, “no leakage of radioactive materials has been reported at this facility, and there is no danger to residents of the surrounding areas.”

The organisation condemned the attack, saying that it is in “violation of the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) and other regulations related to nuclear safety and security.”

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog had said that “no radiological consequence” was expected from that previous strike. The nuclear facility, located nearly 220 kilometres (135 miles) south east of Tehran, had been targeted by Israeli air strikes in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, and by the United States.

The latest strikes come just a day after US President Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” military operations in the Middle East, despite the United States deploying three additional amphibious assault ships and around 2,500 more Marines to the region.

On Friday evening, the US president wrote on Truth Social: “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran”.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House earlier on Friday, Mr Trump rejected calls for a ceasefire, proclaiming victory over Iran.