The CEO of a major airline has said the outlook for airfare looks “bleak” as the Iran war continues. Jet fuel in Europe has doubled in price from £604 to over £1,608 per tonne since the Iran conflict began in late February, according to Reuters.

This is threatening to add £40 or more to the cost of family holidays this spring, experts have warned. The crisis has pushed fuel costs to levels not seen since 2022, as 40% of Europe’s jet fuel passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is blockading. Travel experts at Lapland Family Holidays reviewed the pricing trends and explained: “Families planning last-minute Easter breaks or booking ahead for summer 2027 need to understand that airlines are absorbing unsustainable losses right now. With fuel hedges running out and spot prices nearly triple what carriers locked in months ago, these costs will inevitably reach passengers. Booking early remains the only way to secure pre-crisis pricing.”

Kenton Jarvis, easyJet CEO, warned travellers that fuel volatility would push prices higher.

He said: “One thing we have seen is that fuel has been very volatile over the last few weeks since this terrible war started. I expect that if fuel remains at this level, prices will rise. Fuel prices will have to go up, in which case, I just recommend booking as early as possible.”

Airlines like easyJet operate on margins of just £6 to £7 per seat, meaning even a £10 increase in fuel per passenger would directly threaten profitability.

The scale of the problem is stark. EasyJet hedged fuel at £621 per tonne for the first half of 2026, but current spot prices have reached £1,608 per tonne. The airline had locked in 84% of its fuel needs at the lower rate in January, but those contracts are now expiring.

Financial Times analysis shows European jet fuel imports have dropped 40% since the conflict began, hitting the lowest levels since 2022.

Other carriers are already passing costs to passengers. Air France-KLM is raising long-haul fares by £43 per round trip, while United Airlines has warned of potential 20% increases in ticket prices.

Great British Life research shows the average Easter family break already costs around £1,272, with families having cut holiday budgets by £941 on average due to rising living costs. A £40 to £50 fuel surcharge on top of existing fares represents a significant additional burden.

EasyJet data reviewed by The Guardian shows bookings have slowed since the Iran war began, with flights to Turkey, Cyprus, and Egypt seeing the biggest drops due to proximity to the conflict. Spain, Greece, and Portugal routes are holding up more firmly.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warned that prolonged disruption would have severe consequences: “The longer it goes on, the bleaker it will look.”

For families booking April holidays or planning ahead for 2027, travel experts recommend acting immediately. Airlines typically release seats 11 months in advance at lower prices, gradually increasing fares as departure dates approach and fuel costs fluctuate.