Fears are mounting that thousands of Easter and summer holidays could be cut as airlines begin cancelling flights amid the soaring cost of jet fuel driven by the war in the Middle East. More than one in 20 flights scheduled to take off on Monday (April 30) were cancelled – almost twice the percentage recorded this time last year, according to aviation analytics company Cirium.

The sudden surge in cancellations comes as the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to strangle the global supply of jet fuel and send prices skyrocketing. Jet fuel – a kerosene-based fuel – now sets buyers back around $1,710 (£1,284) per metric tonne – a 130% increase on its cost just 12 months ago. The increase is linked to a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, hitting a high of $116 (£87) per barrel during trading on Monday morning.

Some airlines have already begun cutting down on flight routes, including Air New Zealand, which is cancelling 1,100 flights through to early May, major US carrier United Airlines, which has cut down around 5% of its capacity on its less profitable routes and Scandinavian group SAS, which is cancelling more than a thousand planned flights this month.

The surge comes as Iran continues to effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime shipping route through which around 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas passes and around 40% of Europe’s jet fuel supplies. Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, shipping traffic exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait has been halted, with tankers stranded amid risks that vessels could be attacked. Additionally, after Iranian drone strikes damaged several oil refineries across the Middle East, key oil producers in the region, including Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE have also cut down on production.

At least half of the UK’s jet fuel has been sourced from the Middle East in recent months, after pivoting from Russian supplies following the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022.

The shortage has led economists to liken the current situation to the 1970s energy crisis, when the Western world, particularly the US, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand, faced substantial petroleum shortages and elevated prices. The two worst crises of this period were the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, when the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution, respectively, disrupted Middle Eastern exports.

Writing on X, aviation analyst Alex Macheras warned “a serious jet fuel shortage is less than a week away across multiple different markets,” including “at some major European airport hubs”.

He said some airports were “informing airlines to prepare for a potential no-fuel available here scenario”.

“This is not [just] a Europe problem – international airlines from Asia, South America, Africa […] are working on contingency plans, which include attempted fuel stops en route to/ from destinations as jet fuel shortage worsens to unprecedented levels [and] the price continues to surge,” he added.

According to the Financial Times, the last known shipment of jet fuel to the UK from the Middle East is expected to arrive this week.