Changes to the welfare system could mean that new claims for a DWP benefit are at risk.

The Conservative government under former prime minister Rishi Sunak warned in September 2023 that the application of limited capability for work and work-related activity (LCWRA) risk “has gone beyond the original intent”.

This means, officials said at the time, that 14.6 per cent of new claims awarded LCWRA “are now under substantial risk”.

The £416.19 monthly payment is given to people in a condition that means they are not thought capable of preparing for work.

DWP figures included in a release published on December 12 suggest that 36,625 decisions resulted in LCWRA in August.

If the 14.6 per cent figure were applied to that total, 5,347 of the new awarded claims would be at risk, according to the former government’s warning.

A DWP release published on December 12 stated that, as of September, 71 per cent of people (1.6million) on Universal Credit (UC) health have LCWRA.

As of September 2024, 2.3million people were on UC health, the Government added.

This was up 22 per cent from September 2023, and up by 5 per cent from the month of June 2024.

Officials added that, of those on the caseload at September 2024, 298,000 (13 per cent) had acceptable medical evidence of a restricted ability to work and were awaiting a decision, 357,000 (16 per cent) were assessed as limited capability for work (LCW), and 1.6 million (71 per cent) were assessed as LCWRA.

However, The Big Issue reports that disability campaigner Ellen Clifford’s, a member of Disabled People Against Cuts (DPAC), team argued that the 2023 warning made it sound as if use of the substantial risk regulations – a safety net that allow people with certain health conditions or disabilities to be considered to have limited capability for work – were rising.

An internal graph released by the DWP under disclosure reportedly showed that the proportion of LCWRA decisions that were due to substantial risk had risen from 2009 and peaked in 2015.

Although, since then the court heard that it had been falling for years. Lawyers then said that the figure was now as low as it had ever been back to when the WCA was introduced.

This data was available to the DWP but not to the public, it was argued, and the downward trend of cases was “not mentioned in the consultation document”.

A DWP spokesperson told the magazine: “We can’t comment on live legal proceedings. We’ve been clear the work capability assessment is not working.

“That’s why we will bring forward a green paper on our proposals for reforming the health and disability benefits system as part of a proper plan to genuinely support disabled people into work and, in turn, bring down the benefits bill.

“We will work closely with disabled people and their organisations as we develop our proposals, which we will publish in the spring.”