This week has brought a rare glimmer of hope with the announcement of a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Following US-mediated talks in Jeddah, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed that Kyiv has accepted a 30-day truce proposal, leaving the ball now in Russia’s court. The announcement came just hours after news of Russian forces making gains in the contested Kursk region, and now the world watches to see if Moscow will indeed agree to negotiate an end to the conflict. What a remarkable change of direction. Only a couple of weeks ago, a White House meeting between Zelensky and Trump descended into what looked suspiciously like a stage-managed diplomatic disaster.

The world recoiled, not just at the undignified spectacle but at the alarming implication that American military aid to Ukraine might be hanging by a thread. Days later, the US confirmed it was suspending both military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, leaving European leaders scrambling and Ukrainian forces more vulnerable than ever. But if the last two years have proven anything, it’s that Trump negotiates like a sledgehammer – loud, chaotic, but occasionally effective. The US and Ukraine resumed discussions last week, and now, a ceasefire is on the table.

The question remains: What will Russia do next?

The human toll of this war has been simply catastrophic. Ukrainian sources report roughly 70,000 military deaths, with 120,000 wounded since the conflict began.

Civilian casualties stand at an estimated 25,000 killed. Russia, too, has suffered tremendous losses – officially, the Kremlin acknowledges 50,000 military casualties, though independent estimates suggest the real number is far higher. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s infrastructure has sustained damage well into the hundreds of billions, with homes, power grids, and entire cities reduced to rubble.

And here lies the uncomfortable truth: barring some unforeseen military miracle, Ukraine will likely have to cede the territory Russia now holds. Moscow won’t voluntarily withdraw, and Kyiv, despite its extraordinary resistance, is not winning. This is not fair, nor just – but it is reality.

For all of Europe’s performative outrage over Trump’s handling of the war, you have to wonder why they didn’t start negotiations sooner themselves. Perhaps because that would have required an admission of their own failures.

The truth is that European leaders have spent decades cosying up to Moscow, fuelling their economies with Russian gas while failing to guarantee the security of their own borders. They had to learn the lesson the hard way when the war sent European gas prices soaring, forcing governments to scramble for alternatives after years of shortsighted reliance on Moscow.

The irony, of course, is that Trump – persona non grata in polite European society – warned Germany back in 2018 that their dependence on Russian gas was a strategic liability. He was laughed at. Four years later, Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.

It’s incredible to see the same leaders who were content to let Putin pick apart Ukraine piece by piece until it was too late now decry Trump’s strong-arming and accuse him of appeasement.

Where was this moral outrage when Obama did nothing after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014? That was the very definition of appeasement.

Of course, none of this negates the fact that Russia must be held accountable. Peace cannot come at the cost of legitimising Putin’s aggression.

But unless the West has a viable long-term plan to guarantee Ukraine’s security and deter future Russian incursions, then this ceasefire is little more than a pause before the next round of hostilities.

Beyond the battlefield, the economic consequences of this war have rippled across the globe. The price of staple foods such as wheat has skyrocketed, hitting developing nations hardest. Egypt, which previously sourced 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, has seen food inflation spiral out of control.

Countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and several African nations have also been battered by soaring costs, with food inflation surpassing 20-30% in some regions. Bread riots and protests have already erupted, a grim reminder that this war has consequences far beyond Europe.

So, where do we go from here? A ceasefire is not a victory, nor is it justice. But the alternative – an endless war with no clear path to success – is worse.

Ultimately, there is no perfect solution, only difficult choices and trade-offs. If this war drags on indefinitely, the resources dedicated to Ukraine will come at the expense of other urgent security priorities. The global economic toll will deepen, with the most vulnerable nations paying the highest price. The West cannot afford to repeat the mistakes that led us here.

Whatever security guarantees there are must be ironclad. Future Russian aggression must be deterred, not merely punished after the fact. And European leaders must take a hard look at their own failings – because, for all the condemnation of Trump’s tactics, his crude warnings about European negligence proved devastatingly accurate.