On-going conflicts on the global stage could have a major impact on the UK economy even affecting the triple lock on the state pension.

Experts have raised concerns that the conflict between Iran and Israel could lead to a spike in oil prices, leading to inflation and other knock-on effects in the UK.

Oliver Chapman, group CEO of procurement group OCI, said that UK families shold brace for “financial turbulence” as the crisis in the Middle East intensifies.

He said: “We monitor global supply chains daily and right now, all indicators point to markets preparing for a disruption in oil and shipping flows, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

“Though oil and gas tankers are continuing to pass through the passageway, vessels are already being advised to re-route orshelter in safe ports.

“Two supertankers were redirected from the Persian Gulf just yesterday, indicating that substantial disruption may be on the horizon.”

He warned that a spike in oil prices could lead to an uptick in inflation, which came in at 3.4% for the year to May 2025, with the rate generally heading down in recent months.

Mr Chapman explained what this could mean for UK consumers: “That would affect everything from fuel to food, and pressure the Bank of England to keep interest rates elevated longer than anticipated.

“There’s also the triple lock to consider. If inflation rises sharply, pensions could increase by more than expected – a win for pensioners, yes, but a challenge for public finances.

“In an election-sensitive climate, there’s a real risk the Treasury may be forced to reconsider or water down the commitment.”

Labour has committed to the triple lock policy for the duration of this Parliament. The policy guarantees state pension payments go up each April in line with the highest of inflation, the rise in average earnings or 2.5%.

Dan Boardman-Weston, CEO at BRI Wealth Management, also warned that the conflict in the Middle East could have a “negative impact” on the UK economy with inflation going up.

He also said this could mean inflation is the key metric for the triple lock for next year’s state pension increase, meaning “higher pension payouts” than previously expected.

Given the volatile and fast-moving situation, Mr Chapman urged people to act now and look over their finances. He said: “Families should act now. Lock in energy deals where possible.

“Avoid taking on new, high-interest debt. Increase your emergency savings – even small amounts matter. Reassess mortgage options if rates remain high.”

He also encouraged businesses to prepare for uncertain months ahead by hedging risk, diversifying suppliers, and reducing overreliance on any one region.

He said households should also diversify their income wherever possible and seek to reduce the impact on them of any changes to interest rates.

Mr Boardman-Weston urged people not to panic and encouraged people to build up their savings in pensions and ISAs. He explained: “Where possible, people should try and save to ensure they have an emergency reserve.

“This isn’t always possible but even very small amounts of saving on a regular basis can increase financial resilience and enable people to deal with economic shocks better.”