It’s now only a matter of time until the state pension uplift mechanism gets its last orders. For years, its enemies have been circling. They claim the triple lock is too expensive. That it’s handed pensioners two massive pay rises in a row, and that’s hard on workers who fund it from stagnating wages. And it will only get more unaffordable as the nation ages, birth rates fall, and the ratio of workers to pensioners shrinks. The Treasury has wanted to see the back of it for years. So has pensions minister Torsten Bell.

I’ve written about young Torsten before. He ran left-wing think tank Resolution Foundation for a decade, where he dreamed up all sorts of plans to overhaul the tax and benefits system. Every plan had one thing in common.More taxes, fewer benefits for pensioners. He’s been calling for the triple lock to be downgraded for years, calling it “not a sensible mechanism”. Now he’s a Labour MP. In charge of pension policy.

Bell is a funny chap. He looks like butter wouldn’t melt, but holds himself in high regard and is prone to frantic bouts of swearing if he doesn’t get his way. He usually does, pretty much writing Rachel Reeves‘s last Budget. He could be the next Chancellor. When Bell talks pensions, we have to listen, like it or not. Last week, he gave a pretty clear idea of what Labour may do next.

Since 2011, the triple lock has increased the state pension each year by earnings, inflation or 2.5%, whichever is highest. It’s done a brilliant job of reducing pensioner poverty, although more remains to be done.

But it’s come under fire for handing pensioners some pretty hefty increases: 10.1% in April 2023, based on inflation, then 8.5% in 2024, based on earnings. Next month another 4.8% rise is due, again based on earnings.

With inflation expected to rise because of the oil price shock, pensioners may enjoy another decent uplift next year. Great for them, but it will put the triple lock under intense political pressure. Especially with the Iran war and oil shock preparing to destroy Chancellor Rachel Reeves

Labour has pledged to safeguard the safeguard for this Parliament, at a cost of £30billion. That should hold. It was a manifesto commitment, and we know Keir Starmer‘s party always honours those. However, Bell made it clear that its future beyond that is on the line.

He’s hinted Labour he could drop one element of the triple lock. It might be the 2.5% floor or the inflation element, leaving the state pension to rise with earnings alone. We don’t know yet.

There’s another way of cutting the state pension bill. By hiking the retirement age. It will already start rising from 66 to 67 next month, with 68 pencilled in for 2044. Some have called for it to hit 75.

Bell has knocked that on the head. He says too many people aren’t healthy enough to work into their 50s, let alone their 70s. Poorer people tend to die younger and may never reach state pension age at all. If something has to give, it will be the triple lock.

Bell isn’t alone in questioning its future. Even Nigel Farage has said the triple lock is “open for debate”. Politicians fear a massive backlash by pensioners if they kill it. But if they all move as one, it’s time might really be up.