State pensioners will be looking forward to their triple lock increase coming in soon. The policy ensures payments increase each April in line with the highest of three measures.

Claimants get a pay boost set by the highest of either 2.5 percent, the rise in average earnings or the rate of inflation. The earning figure proved to be the highest of the three numbers last year, with recipients to get a 4.8 percent boost this April.

This will lift the full new state pension from the current £230.25 a week up to £241.30 a week, while the full basic state pension will move up from the current £176.45 a week to 184.90 a week.

This is particularly generous as other benefit claimants wil only get a 3.8 percent rise in their payments, in line with inflation. With the pay rise on the way, state pensioners may wonder how much the triple lock will boost their payments next year.

Antonia Medlicott, founder and managing director of financial education group Investing Insiders, crunched the numbers. She said: “Inflation is expected to continue a downward trend for the majority of 2026, and most analysts predict it will be around 2.2 per cent throughout the fourth quarter, which suggests September inflation won’t be much higher.

“Minimum wage is set to increase by 4.1 percent to £12.71 per hour in April, so the most likely indication right now is that average earnings will once again decide the triple lock increase next year, although at a much lower rate than the rises we saw in the recent past (2023 and 2024).” The April 2023 saw a record 10.1 percent boost in pensioner payments, thanks to soaring inflation the year before.

Claimants also had a sizeable 8.5 percent increase in their pay in April 2024, this time with the average earnings figure determining the increase. The earnings figure was also the decisive factor for the April 2025 increase, delivering a 4.1 percent increase last year.

Not much better off

Ms Meldicott warned that this year’s pay increase will be “absorbed by inflation” for many state pensioners. She said: “Pensioners facing higher prices for energy, food and services probably won’t feel that much better off.”

But if you do have some more spare cash thanks to the triple lock boost, the expert said it could be a good opportunity to build up your savings. She said: “If you can afford to put any gain that isn’t being used for living expenses into an ISA, that could be one way to potentially give idle money a boost – either via interest paid through a cash ISA, or investment growth in a stocks and shares ISA.

“If you’re likely to need that money in the next few years, then cash savings might be better, but if you can afford to put your money away for the longer term (ideally at least 5 years), then stocks and shares can produce better growth.” One concern with the current triple lock policy is that it is driving up payments at a rate that Government coffers cannot sustain for much longer.

Ms Medlicott said the policy has boosted payments by 30 percent compared with 2022 rates and that continuing at this rate “would be unsustainable”. Labour has committed to keeping the policy in place for at least the rest of this Parliament.

The advocate said that we need to be realistic about the future of the triple lock. Ms Medlicott said: “Projections show that by 2035, the state pension will cost more than is received in National Insurance contributions.

“We’re kidding ourselves if we think the triple lock can be sustained. That said, I don’t know of many pensioners who rely solely on the state pension who think of themselves as well-off. We still have one of the least generous state pensions in the G7 group of wealthy economies.”

Difficult decisions

She urged policy makers to be transparent about what they can provide pensioners. Ms Medlicott said: “The current and future Governments, whatever party they are formed from, need to face up to some very difficult decisions.

“They need to start being honest with people that the state pension of the future is simply not going to be enough for people to rely on for a decent quality of life. As a nation, we’re not prepared for how much more needs to be put into private pensions.”

However, changes are coming in soon that will go some way to curbing the costs of the state pension bill. The money expert said: “An alternative used is the increase in retirement age, which will go from 66 to 67 by 2028, and then to 68 by 2046.

“Although as life expectancy is no longer increasing at such a high rate, it is more difficult to continue to do this and there would be much controversy if it was to be raised further or if these timeframes were shortened.”

The state pension age is moving up from the current 66 from April 2026, moving up gradually to reach 67 by 2028. Legislation is also in place for another gradual move from 67 to 68 between 2044 and 2046.

There have previously been suggestions put to the previous Conservative Government to bring forward the timetable for the move to 68, but this was not taken up by ministers.

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