The flow of people attempting to reach the UK illegally shows no sign of slowing, despite a sharp fall in irregular migration across the European Union, in a development which reflects badly on PM Sir Keir Starmer, a Brussels-based expert has said. New figures from Frontex, the EU’s border and coast guard agency, reveal that detections of irregular crossings at the EU’s external borders fell by more than a quarter in 2025, dropping to almost 178,000 — less than half the total recorded in 2023 and the lowest level since 2021.

However, the data covers only EU countries and does not include the UK, where Channel crossings are recorded separately. UK Home Office figures show more than 41,000 people arrived in the UK in small boats in 2025, the second‑highest annual total on record. Frank Furedi, an internationally-known sociologist, author and social commentator, said the UK stands out in the data for its failure to curb people smuggling.

Mr Furedi is Emeritus Professor of Sociology at the University of Kent, Executive Director of the Brussels-based think-tank MCC Brussels, and author of more than 25 books on culture, risk and society. He frequently appears on radio and television and writes widely on public policy and migration issues.

He said: “According to this report, the trafficking of illegal migrants into the UK continues to be a flourishing industry. Despite all the rhetoric, successive governments have failed to curb the activities of people smugglers. While ‘detected’ illegal migration to EU countries may have fallen, the rate for the UK has remained steady. The UK stands out as the country least able to strike back against the people smuggling industry.”

He continued: “Just like the Conservatives promise to stop the boats, Keir Starmer‘s pledge to smash the gangs was nothing but a throwaway line to win votes. They had no intention of doing anything about it. This new data proves business is still booming for criminal gangs thanks to Labour.”

Hans Leijtens, Executive Director of Frontex, said: “The trend is moving in the right direction, but risks do not disappear. This drop shows that cooperation can deliver results. It is not an invitation to relax. Our responsibility is to stay alert, support Member States on the ground, and ensure Europe is ready for new challenges at its borders.”

Mr Leijtens added: “Staying prepared is about practical choices. It means officers on duty, assets ready, and close cooperation with national authorities and partners beyond the EU. That is how Frontex helps Europe stay ready for whatever comes next.”

The Frontex data shows that the Central Mediterranean route remained the busiest migration corridor in 2025, with departures from Libya continuing to shape movements towards Italy. Detections on the Eastern Mediterranean route fell overall, although certain corridors saw sharp increases, illustrating how migration pressure can shift rapidly even amid a broader decline.

The Western Africa route experienced the steepest fall in irregular crossings, driven by drops in departures from Mauritania, Morocco and Senegal.

In the Western Balkans, detections fell markedly due to heightened security measures and joint Frontex operations, including a new mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina launched in November 2025. The Western Mediterranean route, by contrast, recorded a small increase, mainly from Algeria.

At sea, the dangers remain acute: according to the International Organization for Migration, at least 1,878 people lost their lives attempting the Mediterranean crossing in 2025, down from 2,573 in 2024. Frontex aircraft and vessels support national authorities by detecting boats in danger and sharing information in real time to improve situational awareness and search-and-rescue readiness.

While the EU’s figures underline the impact of coordinated border management across member states, Mr Furedi’s assessment draws attention to a stark contrast with the UK’s experience.

Despite repeated political pledges from both the Conservatives and Labour, attempts to cross the Channel illegally continue at a steady pace, leaving criminal gangs free to profit, he argues.

For Europe, investment in surveillance, cooperation with non-EU partners, and new systems such as the Entry/Exit System and the European Travel Information and Authorisation System are central to continued progress. For the UK, Mr Furedi warns, the business of people smuggling continues unabated, with political promises failing to make a dent.