Fears of a catastrophic escalation towards World War 3 have surged after Russia confirmed the deployment of its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to Belarus, placing advanced weaponry capable of striking European capitals in minutes directly on the European Union’s doorstep.

Russian Strategic Missile Forces personnel in Belarus on Monday raised their flag to mark the Oreshnik entering combat duty. Moscow’s Ministry of Defence announced that retrained crews are now patrolling designated areas, with full infrastructure prepared for the mobile launchers.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s closest ally, confirmed the arrival earlier this month, framing it as a “necessary response” to Western “aggression”.

Satellite imagery analysed by Western researchers points to basing near Krichev, a former airbase in eastern Belarus that has seen rapid infrastructure upgrades over the last year.

Defence experts warn the move marks Moscow’s first deployment of nuclear-capable missiles outside its territory since the Cold War.

John Foreman, former British defence attache in Moscow and Kyiv now at Chatham House, noted that Putin’s strategy utilises Belarus to extend Russia‘s reach.

He linked the move directly to the planned 2026 US missile placements in Germany, which include long-range hypersonic systems.

NATO sources describe the deployment as an escalation of “nuclear signalling” intended to deter Western involvement in Ukraine.

With the New START treaty effectively dormant, arms control between Moscow and Washington has reached its lowest point in decades.

The Kremlin insists the Oreshnik is defensive, intended to counter the NATO buildup near the borders of the “Union State.” Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin called the move a “stabilising factor,” denying any shift in the European power balance.

However, Western capitals view the deployment as blatant intimidation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the relocation of Oreshnik to Belarus is nearing completion, stating that Ukraine knows the likely deployment sites and is sharing this intelligence with partners.

Zelenskyy further noted that Ukraine is working with allies so they can assess the threat and prepare responses, describing the proliferation of such weapons as setting a “dangerous precedent” for global security.

As 2025 ends with stalled peace talks and uncertainty regarding future US foreign policy, this deployment injects fresh volatility into the security landscape.

Analysts fear that the reduced decision-making time created by such high-speed weapons could lead to a fatal miscalculation, echoing the darkest days of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.