Ministers may be forced to make changes to the triple lock policy amid rising levels of unemployment. The unemployment rate rose to 5 percent in the latest figures, for the three months to September. ONS figures suggest the number of payrolled employees in September 2025 fell by 117,000 compared to a year ago.

A drop in the number of workers paying their taxes can affect Government revenues, which may force changes to its other fiscal commitments such as the triple lock. The triple lock guarantees state pension payments increase in line with whichever is highest: 2.5 percent, the rise in average earnings or inflation.

The policy has delivered sizeable increases in recent years, including a record 10.1 percent in April 2023, amid high levels of inflation. But the ramping costs of the state pension raise the question of how long the triple lock will be affordable.

Mark Richdon, tax director at accountancy firm Bishop Fleming, said: “Higher unemployment would reduce National Insurance and income tax receipts, tightening the Treasury’s fiscal position just as pension and benefit costs continue to rise.

“The Government is already understood to be considering ways to broaden the tax revenue from landlords and pensioners through changes to income tax and National Insurance. Sustained weakness in the jobs market could accelerate such measures or prompt a review of the state pension triple lock in the longer term.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will soon set out her latest fiscal policies, at the Autumn Budget, scheduled for Wednesday, November 26. This is usually when the triple lock is confirmed for the following April. Labour has previously said it is committed to the policy for the duration of this Parliament.

More pressure on the benefits system

Sebrina McCullough, director of external relations at free financial help charity Money Wellness, said they have noticed the impact of rising unemployment, with more people seeking debt advice and other support. She said: “For many households, even a short period without regular income can push them into hardship, especially with savings depleted after years of high living costs.

“If these figures continue to climb, it will place additional pressure on the benefits system and could increase government spending at a time when public finances are already stretched.

“The Chancellor may feel compelled in the Autumn Budget to strengthen support for those newly out of work, through improved benefit levels, retraining schemes, and measures that help people transition back into employment quickly and sustainably.”

Ms McCullough warned that rising unemployment can have “a ripple effect” across the economy. She said: “More people claiming support means lower tax receipts and greater welfare costs, which can make it harder to fund essential services and state pensions in the long term. Protecting people during these periods is vital to prevent financial insecurity from becoming a long-term problem.”

Getting people back into work

One employer having success in getting people back into work is at-home care provider Cera, which has recruited more than 3,900 carers and nurses since last October. More than a quarter of these new workers were previously unemployed and 16 percent of them were economically inactive.

The company even has an AI recruitment agent, Ami, which applicants can talk to over the phone, to go through some questions to get their details.

Dr Ben Maruthappu, founder and CEO of Cera, said: “Recruitment and staffing remain major challenges for health and social care. In contrast, Ami transforms this challenging process, taking the time from application to first interview down from days to seconds, significantly boosting the speed and likelihood of a successful hire.”

The provider uses the latest technology including AI to monitor their care recipients and provide effective care and support. Staff can log any changes to a person’s condition, to help prevent falls and hospitalisations. A lot of new employees have joined the group who previously had not worked in care.