Labour may be forced to water down the triple lock pledge in the Budget as pressures on the public purse mount, experts warn. The triple lock policy ensures state pension payments go up in line with whichever is highest: 2.5 percent, inflation or the rise in average earnings. New ONS figures suggest state pension payments would go up 4.8 percent next April, using the earnings metric.

This would raise the full new state pension from the current £230.25 a week to £241.30 a week, or £12,547.60 a year. Steven Cameron, pensions director at wealth firm Aegon, warned there is a slim chance the Government may change the policy at next month’s Autumn Budget.

He said: “While the Government has committed to retain the triple lock, this is an above inflation increase and comes with a high price tag, paid for by today’s workers. If as is being predicted the Budget includes some very tough calls, it’s just possible that the Chancellor might override the formula and grant a lower increase, for example in line with next week’s inflation figure.”

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure for inflation, which is used for the triple lock, was at 3.8 percent in the latest figures, for the 12 months to August. However, Mr Cameron said it is very unlikely there will be any major changes to the state pension in the Budget.

He said: “It’s highly unlikely that there will be any big announcements about the state pension in the Budget. In particular, there are two ongoing reviews around state pension age which won’t conclude until next year at the earliest.”

The state pension age is currently 66 although it will be gradually increasing to 67, from next April until April 2028. The Government announced there would be another view of the state pension age.

This will look at topics including the role of the policy in keeping the state pension sustainable and the merits of linking the state pension age to life expectancy. The Pensions Commission is undertaking a wider study of pensions policy, including the role of private pensions and how this builds “on the foundation of the state pension“.

The DWP has been asked for comment. The Government has committed to keeping the triple lock for the duration of this Parliament.

Former Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall, said previously: “Our ironclad commitment to the triple lock gives pensioners across the country the certainty and security they need to live a full life in retirement. We are putting more money in people’s pockets and driving up household income as part of our Plan for Change.”

You can check how much state pension you are on track to receive using the state pension forecast tool on the Government website. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her Autumn Statement before Parliament on Wednesday, November 26.